Conservative Christians Flex Their Political Muscles

Yeah, I know. Again? But it looks like the GOP’s strategy of gaining support by whipping the conservative-Christian base into a froth over social issues to get voter turnout yet never quite delivering the goods may come back to bite them in the ass now that Bush’s approval ratings have dipped below 30%:

WASHINGTON, May 13 — Some of President Bush’s most influential conservative Christian allies are becoming openly critical of the White House and Republicans in Congress, warning that they will withhold their support in the midterm elections unless Congress does more to oppose same-sex marriage, obscenity and abortion.

“There is a growing feeling among conservatives that the only way to cure the problem is for Republicans to lose the Congressional elections this fall,” said Richard Viguerie, a conservative direct-mail pioneer.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer party.

Before I continue, I just want to point out the significance of Richard Viguerie’s direct-mail experience. The case I’m working on actually involves the sale of a company that used direct mail and telemarketing to sell its service to credit-card holders. Those annoying little flaps you need to tear off the payment envelopes of your credit card statements are called bangtails, and they’re just one of the ways direct marketers reach you. But they need to know how to reach you in the first place, and that’s where the direct-mail companies come in. They compile lists of people’s addresses, phone numbers and various other personal information that can be used to target potential customers. The lists are proprietary information and take a lot of effort to compile. The direct mailers then rent out the lists to various marketers who want to sell their product to potential buyers.

The Republicans realized early on that these lists could be used to target voters as well as consumers, which is why you see people like Viguerie described as a “conservative direct-mail pioneer.” The lists have gotten quite sophisticated and complex, and the message can be targeted to maximize the response rates. Another advantage in using such targeted marketing is that it allows the GOP to avoid broadcasting their true agenda, because they know full well that the majority of people in the US do not support their social positions, particularly with regard to reproductive rights. But when you can narrowly focus your message to get highly-motivated social conservative voters to the polls by making promises to ban same-sex marriage or abortion while taking a more moderate position publicly so you attract mainstream voters, you can get enough of a consistent turnout of true believers to keep your people in office, where you never really have to follow through on the promises.

But now, it appears that James Dobson’s had enough of the footsie-playing and he wants results.

In the last several weeks, Dr. James C. Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family and one of the most influential Christian conservatives, has publicly accused Republican leaders of betraying the social conservatives who helped elect them in 2004. He has also warned in private meetings with about a dozen of the top Republicans in Washington that he may turn critic this fall unless the party delivers on conservative goals.

And at a meeting in Northern Virginia this weekend of the Council for National Policy, an alliance of the most prominent Christian conservatives, several participants said sentiment toward the White House and Republicans in Congress had deteriorated sharply since the 2004 elections.

When the group met in the summer of 2004, it resembled a pep rally for Mr. Bush and his allies on Capitol Hill, and one session focused on how to use state initiatives seeking to ban same-sex marriage to help turn out the vote. This year, some participants are complaining that as soon as Mr. Bush was re-elected he stopped expressing his support for a constitutional amendment banning such unions.

Dobson and his ilk have made these kinds of rumblings before, mind you. But this time, with Bush’s support so thin, the base is pretty much all he has. If Dobson tells his followers to stay home from the polls, they will — and that could easily translate into Democratic candidates taking Congress back (though they show little sign of knowing what to do should that happen). And losing even one house of Congress would be an utter disaster for the Bush Administration, given that the party in charge of either house could start issuing subpoenas for Congressional hearings into many of the disastrous policies and corrupt practices of the Administration. And then there’s the “I” word to worry about.

But here’s the thing: because Dobson’s politics are so far out of the political mainstream, giving in to his demands could further erode support for Republicans. You just know he’s itching to ban abortion, but the majority of all Americans want to keep abortion legal, even if they’re not comfortable with it. You know he wants to outlaw contraceptives, but when 90 percent of sexually active evangelical women use birth control (as do 88 percent of sexually active Catholic women), saying that out loud would devastate the party’s electoral chances.

That the chest-pounding of Dobson, Tony Perkins and the like puts Republicans in a bind is not lost on some conservatives.

Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform and another frequent participant in the Council for National Policy, argued that Christian conservatives were hurting their own cause.

“If the Republicans do poorly in 2006,” Mr. Norquist said, “the establishment will explain that it was because Bush was too conservative, specifically on social and cultural issues.”

Dr. Dobson declined to comment. His spokesman, Paul Hetrick, said that Dr. Dobson was “on a fact-finding trip to see where Republicans are regarding the issues that concern values voters most, especially the Marriage Protection Act,” and that it was too soon to tell the results.

I suspect that Dobson’s fact-finding tour will confirm his conclusions, since I’m sure he’s going to limit himself to the most socially conservative groups. All I have to say is, you go right on out there and find those people and keep pushing for a payoff, James.

I’ll make the popcorn.