Politico won’t quite come out and say it, but the McCain campaign is beset and a Campaign Death Watch is in order. The linked Politico mention goes to comments that his immigration bill, which just met its current demise in the Senate, was antagonizing Republican primary voters. But his problem is much bigger than his immigration bill (which as a policy matter I almost like).
In 2000, McCain’s “maverick” behavior endeared him to primary audiences. As it might be melancholy to remember, the year 2000 was an optimistic time of peace and prosperity in America. We looked both inward, asking how we might perfect our democracy and invest our ∞ dollar surplus, and outward, asking how we might best help solve international humanitarian crises. McCain’s independent, straight-talking streak reflected this. He made that reputation by pushing campaign finance reform and by rejecting ethanol subsidies in Iowa, and by keeping himself on the record and accessible to journalists.
But 2007 is not 2000, and thus the John McCain Campaign Death Watch begins. McCain’s “maverick” positions are not somewhat-charming opposition to special interest pressures, like his campaign finance reform and ethanol skepticism might have been. McCain confronts a Republican primary whose voters have been whipped into a frenzy over immigration policy, a nation opposed to escalation in Iraq, and a conservative base (and media) looking elsewhere for the Next Big Thing. Because of McCain’s sane immigration bill, his insane escalation policy, and Fred Thompson’s potential candidacy, it is time to countdown to the end of McCain’s presidential hopes.
McCain’s latest immigration bill, which would have given illegal immigrants a path to citizenship – with fines, back tax requirements, language and skills requirements, going back to the country from which the person emigrated – and created a legal guest worker program, just failed in the Senate. This might be the best news McCain has had in a while, because Republican primary voters, whipped up into an anti-Latino frenzy by Michael Savage and an anti-illegal-immigration frenzy by Lou Dobbs, oppose any policy that gives illegal immigrants any path to citizenship. This appears to be a threshhold political issue for many Republican primary voters, and McCain is (like Sen. Kennedy would be if he were running for the Republican nomination) on the wrong side.
And on the most important matter in American politics today, the war in Iraq, President Bush’s escalation is fairly called the McCain Doctrine. McCain is the primary politician signed on to the AEI/Frederick Kagan escalation argument, and has been arguing for troop level increases every time a policy question about Iraq has been asked of him. But this policy is both politically bankrupt and foolish. Romney and Giuliani, for instance, have been better at emphasizing their differences with Bush on Iraq. But McCain is both political father and heir to Bush’s escalation.
And a Fred Thompson campaign would weaken McCain, says the Washington Post today. (Or help McCain in Iowa, says the Des Moines Register.) The Post catalogues a number of big time fundraisers who formerly supported McCain but are now saving their wallets for Thompson’s entry. And in the way The Post wrote the article – talking about Thompson as both viable ” — and fresh — “, you can see that John McCain is no longer the media’s Saint John.
Hated by his party on immigration and campaign finance, wrong on the war in Iraq, abandoned for Thompson, dull and tedious to the media. All of which makes you wonder what McCain is thinking. Should be thinking concession speeches.
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buh bye.
the way they’re all whipping the immigration thing into their latest meal ticket makes me sick. these are my friends and neighbors, you fucking assholes.
so who gets to be Prom King, then? who the flying Dutch -is- Fred Thompson?
not Giuliani, surely. Romney? ugh.
So harsh, Mikey. Oh, and a conservative media. Sigh.
So harsh, Mikey. Oh, and a conservative media. Sigh.
I think you’re right about McCain, which is funny because two years ago some of my friends including a couple of moderate Republicans were predicting McCain vs. Hillary for the election.
On another note, I don’t think McCain’s Iraq policy is entirely pandering to Bush. It also reflects an aspect of U.S. military culture that is very uncomfortable admitting failure. I’ve heard the same “increase troops to secure the country” line from military members and people in military families on a regular basis where I live in the U.S. South. The argument is usually that the U.S. government should have secured the Iraqi army rather than dismissing it, and that more troops will make Iraq more secure. McCain is definitely out of step with much of the country on this, but I don’t think he’s out of step with many people in the military. Maybe It’s just a Southern thing though?
Not a minute too soon. McCain hasn’t been a “maverick” since 2000, and maybe he wasn’t even then. He’s a sell-out who pretends to be principled, and that’s the worst kind.
I’m praying for Romney to be nominated.
McCain has seemed a spent and broken man for quite a while now. I actually voted for him in the 2000 primary. Indecisive about whether I liked Bradley or Gore more, and, knowing that I would vote in the general election for whichever of those two was still around, I wanted to make my “worst case scenario” not so bad. And I still think a McCain presidency then wouldn’t have been as bad as what we got. (Gore would have been better.) I think McCain might be a different, better person now if the political environment were not one shaped by the Bush presidency. (Yes, I know we are responsible for our choices, and he made some doozies.)
This doesn’t surprise me. The Republicans are going to lose in 2008 for the simple fact that there are no real conservative candidates running–just a bunch of RINO’s. And McCain is a prime example of this type of mutant.
But what if he wins??
Marksman2000, who to you is a “real” conservative candiate?
[...] ed for the foreseeable future. The wingnuts who have taken over the party don’t like McCain or Romney, and they won’t support a pr [...]
I want to say “good riddance,” but there’s something a little sad about saying goodbye to the only Republican candidate who didn’t openly endorse torture.
eh, i figure better to put it all out in the open. McCain’s no better than any of the rest of them.
It’s gonna be Fred. Don’t know whether he can win or not, but I’m pretty sure he’s it. He hasn’t even formally declared yet and he’s polling in the top three in spots.
“I will never surrender of my own free will. If in command, I will never surrender the members of my command while they still have the means to resist.”
It’s definitely not just a southern thing. It’s an “I’d rather fight to the death than give up” thing. And I’m from a north-eastern liberal enclave.
I want to say “good riddance,” but there’s something a little sad about saying goodbye to the only Republican candidate who didn’t openly endorse torture.
He’s not the only one. There’s also Ron Paul.
The new book out by Lido Anthony “Lee” Iacocca slams Macain and others in the Republican party.
Ron Paul doesn’t have a chance in hell.
I was also praying for a Romney primary win, but oh dear lord, what if he did win? I know that women are not real humans to most men, but it’s part of doctrine for him.