Live from Nashville, it’s Tuesday night.

Hokay.  I’m here to live-blog the debate, so doggone-it you betcha I’m gonna write a preview.

First, the state of the race: a done deal. Two weeks ago it looked like and Obama win, but the questions was ‘narrow or solid?’  now it looks like an Obama win, but the question is ‘solid or landslide?’  If the numbers keep rolling in for Obama (numbers like double digits in Virginia), in two weeks the only question remaining will be which historic landslide to compare it to.  The negative tack McCain is taking 1: hasn’t shown any favourable-to-McCain effects in the polls, and 2: will likely backfire, since McCain and Obama’s favourables are diverging for the first time in the race.  Also, Obama has better mud, once it gets slung: the Keating stuff is non-trivial and hits close to home in the middle of a financial crisis.

Second, a word on the format: a classic Town Hall debate, but with very strict rules.  All questions from the public (submitted in advance on video), no follow-ups, no rebuttals, no crosstalk.  John McCain is most at home in a Town Hall format, and with the other rules likely working in his favour, this debte seems to be campaign-teeball for McCain.  However, with such a strict format, it will be difficult to introduce any game-changers.  (Unless one of the questions asked is “Senator McCain, do you have any verifiable photographic evidence of Obama doin beer-bongs with bin Laden and Louis Farrakhan?” and the answer happens to be “yes.”)  What Obama needs here is to get through the debate without saying anything outright inflamatory (inflammatory of “death to Israel” or “whitey can suck it” proportions), but what McCain needs is a miracle (a miracle of “ghosts of Reagan, Kennedy, and both Roosevelts join him onstage” proportions).

Third, submissions for the drinking game:  Sip for the usuals (maverick, change), but double if they’re used ironically by the opponent.  Sip for Alaska, double if Obama mentions that he hasn’t been there.  Sip once for each Rezko, Ayers, or Wright, twice for a “Chicago politician” or any other code for “black”.  Finish your drink for a Keating.  I should note that I plan to keep a few counts, but I will likely get caught up in the action and forget half-way through.

Fourth, and final, predictions:  I predict it will feel boring and contrived compared to the last two, it will be relatively uneventful, and afterward it will be declared a “tie”, and the fact that McCain needs worlds better than a tie at this point will get no better than lip service.  I also predict that we’ll be able to milk an entertaining live-blog feed out of it, nonetheless.  The only thing that will surprise me in this debate if I somehow get surprised (do you follow?).  In that regard, it’s the direct opposite of the Biden-Palin debate.

So, enjoy the debate, kids, and remember: if you aren’t registered, and it’s not too late in your state, DO IT NOW.